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    PRINT Overview: Or have we seen it all before? Answer: Yes, we have. If you don't remember 1917, then watch the movie. You and I may not, but our Historic Record does remember, and during the start of the great Spanish flu pandemic and the year that the U.S. entered World War I, the market went down..... 40.1%. Hello? This year's market went down 37.1% - close enough. By the way, in 1918 and 1919 the market went up 84.1% - I'll take that in 2020-21. But I DO remember 1987, and its 36.1% decline felt devastating. Can you see it on this chart? That's the way things work, the past f-a-d-e-s as time goes by, and believe it or not, while we'll always remember 2020 along with 9/11/2001 and 1929, it too will look less frightening in the future. Of course, the sudden economic hit from the COVID-19 pandemic is worse than anything we remember; what do you expect when the world closes-up shop? But "shops" will open again this year and that's what the market "knows". This is the reason for the 30-31% (to-date) Bull market in the midst of such devastating economic news. That's the way the stock market works, it is forward-looking. Here are a couple of forecasts, annualized % change for Gross Domestic Product into 2021. These forecasts are representative of the decline and rebound that forecasters are expecting in 2020-21: The following is starting to show the damage we estimated could happen in our last Letter: In last month's Newsletter I introduced Manuel Blay, who has joined me as Contributing Editor. He is writing the sections on the Dow Theory for the 21st Century and the original Dow Theory, as those two Indicators will be Manuel's primary areas of responsibility. He will be expanding on describing those important Indicators as time goes on and I think you will find him very knowledgeable and innovative as he explores how best to use them. As you will quickly realize from this short VIDEO of Manuel, he is a Spaniard by birth, living with his family in the Dominican Republic, and a long-time proponent of the Dow Theory. I look forward to his contributions and additions to our Letters, and am sure you will appreciate the expertise he brings. Best, Jack The DOW THEORY for the 21st Century: This indicator is GREEN (BUY), having increased from the 25% position held from the 10/25/19 Buy at 26,958.06 to 100% invested on April 6th at the 22,679.99 level. As the simultaneous definition of a Bear market and Capitulation occurred on March 9th a 25% position was maintained, and with the 75% buy when the definition of a Bull market was met on April 6th the average buy is 23,749.50. From our April 6th Buy, the market has rallied further. Currently US stock indexes are flirting with the highest highs since March 23rd (Bear market bottom). Hence, no secondary reaction against the bullish momentum is in sight. As we have been asked what it would take to reverse this bullish course, we'd need the three indexes (Dow Industrials, S&P500 and Dow Transports) declining by an average of at least 8 trading days. Additionally, at least two indexes should decline for two calendar weeks. After that, a bounce should reach at least 3% on one index. From that point, a drop by the S&P500 plus one other index to below the pullback lows would entail a Sell signal. As usual, anytime there is potential or real change, we will alert you via email. The Original Dow Theory: The "original" Dow Theory signaled SELL the same day as the Dow Theory for the 21st Century on March 9th. This indicator remains RED (SELL) since then at the 23,851.02 level, when the closing lows of May 31st, 2019 (last completed secondary reaction) were broken down by the Dow Industrials, and, hence, confirmed the Dow Transports which happened on February 27th. At the close of April 30th, the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports have both rallied for 26 trading days. Hence, the time requirement for a secondary reaction has been amply met. Both indexes have rallied by more than 28% which greatly exceeds the minimum 3% rally requirement. So, we can declare the existence of a secondary reaction. From this point, we have to wait for a pullback lasting at least two days and declining at least 3% on one index. Once this is accomplished, the setup for a BUY signal will have been completed. The actual BUY signal would be given once the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports break up their respective secondary reaction closing highs. The table below summarizes the set-up for a potential Buy under the original Dow Theory: If one is brave, one might consider that a secondary reaction already existed since April 17th. On that date, the Dow Industrials had rallied for 18 trading days off the market lows of March 23rd. The Dow Transports had done so for 13 trading days. So, a purist strictly requiring three confirmed weeks to consider the time requirement as fulfilled would say that there was no secondary reaction at that time. Personally, we think that given the extent of the bounce (30.4% and 22.9% for the Dow Industrials and Transports respectively), one could allow some degree of flexibility. If we accepted that a secondary reaction already existed by April 17th, then a Buy signal would have been given on April 29th. From the April 17th and April 9th bounce highs (for the Dow Industrials and Transports respectively) there was a pullback exceeding -3% on both indexes. After that, followed a rally that broke up the bounce highs on April 27th (Dow Transports) and April 29th (Dow Industrials). Here you have the record leading to the Buy signal: However, it is not our business to improve the original Dow Theory, as its refinement is the Dow Theory for the 21st Century. Thus, the alternative appraisal of the secondary reaction is merely for educational purposes. Schannep ­↑TIMING ↓INDICATOR: This proprietary market timing Indicator returned to a full BUY (GREEN) on April 6th at 22,679.99 level when the definition of a Bull market was met, and from the 50% previous BUY on February 19th, 2019 at the 25,891.32 level, for an average buy of 24,285.65. We use "last in, last out" accounting. Therefore, since we did not sell 100% and simultaneously buy 50% which would have resulted in a new, lower cost basis, we use the levels shown above. As explained in last month's Letter, the monetary situation is extraordinarily positive, and due to the recent advances, the momentum has returned to near neutral. The COMPOSITE Timing Indicator: This, our primary major-trend timing Indicator, has also returned to a full BUY (GREEN) on April 6th at the 22,679.99 level when the definition of a Bull market was met. The Schannep Timing Indicator buy of 24,285.65 and of the Dow Theory for the 21st Century of 23,749.50 averages out to 24,017.57 for this Indicator. As we follow this Indicator in our model portfolio shown at the end of each Letter, we are 100% invested. The BOTTOM LINE: Where do we go from here? We can never be sure, of course, but let's look at what worked the last time we checked in on it. You must remember there is "no rhyme nor reason" to it, but it is "often surprisingly accurate in its predictions". Of course, we are referring to the "Rule of Seven" and the last time we looked in on it the target was.... 29,316.76. By the way, the February 2020 top was 29,551.42, and that target was spelled out and shown in the May 2019 Letter when the market was at 26,592.91. For more information on what this "indicator" is all about, see the Special Report. This time around we are using a rather short-term timeframe so this would be labeled as Target #1 at 25,522.35, and if it is attained, then we can look to calculating a Target #2. Using the S&P500 Index gives a target of 2,925 (already attained), which means we need to be on the lookout for at least a pause here. At that target level our account values would be back to the levels we had when the market was trading over 29,000, due to our Sells and profitable Buy backs since those highs. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Two years ago, in the March 2018 Letter I wrote that "The market may very well stay within the 1,200 points either side of 25,000 for some time". Of course, I didn't mean it would still be there in 2020, but despite eighteen, sometimes serious, ups and downs, here it is again. I'm inclined to double-down on that statement again this time, for as you may remember in the March 2020 Letter I wrote "I do believe that this episode will make investors a little less exuberant and it may take quite a while to get all the way back to all-time highs". Bouncing back up some 30% after the 37% drop has been fun and rewarding, but it actually takes a 60% gain to make up for a 37% loss, so we're halfway there. Along the way we need to continually review and reassess: 1) the status of the pandemic and the economic "rebound", 2) February-March was looking like a top before the COVID-19 hit, so what now? 3) stock buybacks were a very significant factor that we can't count on going forward, 4) an unpredictable election is coming up, Yes, Bull markets always have a "Wall of Worry" to climb, and this one is significant. Jack Schannep Editor Manuel Blay Contributing Editor for TheDowTheory.com Team Historically we have tracked the performance of one of my ACTUAL ROTH IRA portfolios, fully following the Composite Timing Indicator's signals which is currently 100% invested. For longer-term results see The Composite Timing Indicator which we use for timing in our Portfolio verses Buy and Hold. FYI, over the last 65 years Buy & Hold has grown at a 10.6% annual rate whereas The Composite has grown at a 13.3% rate. The problem with showing this real-money Portfolio is that it represents only what I am doing, which could be very different from others. Subscribers use this letter for Market Timing, which could include shorting, going long, even utilizing leveraged investments that could double or triple – in either direction. These results have been monitored by several independent sources that track our performance such as Hulbert Financial Digest, DowTheoryInvestments.com, CXO Advisory Group and TimerTrac.com. This Letter concentrates on the big picture, the trend of the major stock market indices which usually influences the price direction of most individual stocks. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an investment strategy. The detection of these trends may be interpreted differently by different analysts and the opinions expressed on this website may not be shared by other individuals who apply the same principles of The Dow Theory. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or without the risk of loss or will equal the performance of the benchmark portfolio. All investments involve the risk of potential investment losses as well as the potential for investment gains. The performance of any portfolio or investment strategy should be viewed in the context of the broad market and prevailing economic conditions.
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